The aftermath of Brexit in 2022
In June 2016, British people decided to leave the European Union after a referendum which saw 51% of the UK population in favour of, and 48% against, Brexit. It took four years to complete the exit from the EU and on 31st December 2020, the agreement was finalised.
According to this result, the prognosis of joining the European Union did not fulfil the required economic, trade, and immigration expectations. Those who were in favour of Brexit believe that joining the EU has caused an influx of immigrants, creating an employment shortage. On the other hand, those in favour of staying in the EU saw immigration as a positive sign for the economy. Most immigrants were young, eager workers, necessary in every thriving economy.
Current issues
Trade and investment have been key issues in the Brexit debate and conjecture. After Brexit, the UK can no longer enjoy the EU single market and financial service benefits in which there are no tariffs and barriers on imports and exports between the member states. The situation is more complex for Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Republic of Ireland is an EU member. Although there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, there are some customs and regulatory formalities that the two have to follow post-Brexit. A customs border would burden around 9,300 commuters to go through customs every day on their way to and from work and school. The next big question is the status of Scotland. Scotland voted against Brexit, and is calling for another referendum on independence from the UK, with the intention to re-apply to join the EU.
Free movement between the residents of the EU and the UK has ended, and citizens of both areas have to carry the essential travel documents. This has not just affected the travel industry, but also the job market. The EU is a big job market for UK workers and vice versa. Now job seekers from the UK are finding it hard to get a job in the EU. Skilled and semi-skilled workers the UK was getting from the EU is becoming difficult. Many big companies for example, Barclay’s, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, have moved their offices from London to the EU creating a depressive environment for economic growth. [1]
In a world that is moving towards globalisation, Brexit can be seen as an anti-globalisation slogan! Brexit has given a voice to the right-wing, anti-immigration, and anti-EU parties, particularly in France and Germany. Many stakeholders fear a domino effect post-Brexit. There are some weak economies within the EU that need support from the EU, and stronger economies are supporting them to come out of their economic bankruptcy. Most of the EU citizens support EU unity and look forward to it as a path towards prosperity and a growing future.
Still, a lot is unresolved and uncertain, and speculations and postulations continue about the future for a post-Brexit UK and EU.
1. On 16 August 2022 at 21:05, by Ian Beckett
Replying to: The UK and Brexit: the picture today
Do you actually research these articles or simply write what you want to believe? “After Brexit, the UK can no longer enjoy the EU single market and financial service benefits” Some hard facts, Q2 2016 – Q1 2022 UK GDP went up 6.8%. France 6.9%, Germany 4.5%, Spain 4.8% Italy 2.8%. We all faced Covid, Ukraine War and the clear knowledge UK was leaving the EU and this would create barriers. Doesn’t seem that exclusion from the Single Market has been that catastrophic. “Although there is no border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, there are some customs and regulatory formalities” The EU has approximately 20% of its total external border checks occurring between the UK and NI. Much more than ‘some customs and regulatory formalities, trade between NI and the Republic does not represent 20% of EU external trade. Dublin checks 4% of externally traded goods arriving in Republic ports. The NI Protocol itself has been declared in breach of the Good Friday Agreement by David Trimble (awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his negotiating that very agreement) and Ray Bassett one of the Republics lead negotiators. Violence has already flared in the Unionist community and is likely to spread over time to the Republic and mainland Europe. “The EU is a big job market for UK workers and vice versa.” The EU was never a big job market for the UK. People did work there but very many more went to retire to the sun. In fact Spain (with an unemployed rate of 12.48%) had the biggest UK ex pat population. Most UK citizens wishing to work abroad went to the Anglosphere. The UK was a very big source of jobs for the unemployed in the EU. Today, unemployment in the UK 3.8%, Euro Zone 6.6%, Germany 5.4%, France 7.4%, Italy 8.1% etc. If the UK was still part of the EU it is unlikely many UK citizens would be heading there for jobs. “Many big companies for example, Barclay’s, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, have moved their offices from London to the EU.” Most of these ‘moves’ have been cosmetic to satisfy the Commission. The FT survey of the 24 biggest financial companies found most had increased staff in London. Société Générale has reduced UK staff by 300 but BNP Paribar offset that by recruiting new workers. Vanguard the second largest asset management company in the World doubled their London staff. Additionally, mainland banks have warned the Commission that the cost of credit to the EU is likely to increase as they increasingly find it harder to operate in London. “In a world that is moving towards globalisation.” Have you looked at patterns of trade since the pandemic and the Ukrainian War? Increasingly security of supply is seen as critical. Empty shelves across Europe and the US are indicative of the danger of over reliance on extended supply chains.
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