The EU’s outward messaging clearly signals its supportive position toward the Western Balkan: “The EU is fully committed to the EU integration of the Western Balkans,” states the Diplomatic Service of the European Union and the High Representative Kaja Kallas declares that “The Western Balkans belong in the European family.”
During the Western Balkans Summit in October, Germany’s foreign minister posted a photo on Instagram holding a €1 coin showing the outline of the EU. “There is something missing,” he says, “let’s change that”. He and his international colleagues are currently working hard on including the states Albania, Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and North Macedonia – commonly referred to as the western Balkans – into the “heart” of the European Union.
A Front-Runner in a Race Europe Can’t Afford to Lose
Out of these countries, Montenegro is the furthest along in the accession process, with over 71.3% of the citizens supporting the EU membership. Biljana Papović, State Secretary at the Ministry of European Affairs, affirms the progress: “Montenegro has become the first (and so far the only) candidate to receive the interim benchmark report for the most demanding chapters 23 and 24, we have closed four chapters in only two years and are preparing to close additional chapters in the coming weeks.”
EU accession chapters are the thematic areas of EU law and policy that every candidate country must negotiate and align with in order to join the European Union. Today there are 35 accession chapters, wherein each chapter concerns one major policy field. Chapter 23 and 24 concern the judiciary, fundamental rights, and justice issues and are the most extensive chapters. Progress is often closely monitored by the EU and can slow down the process significantly, even for years. Montenegro’s advanced position gives Papović confidence that her country can become the EU’s 28th member by 2028. ”These results, along with this year’s Commission report which portrays us as the most advanced and most prepared candidate, demonstrate that our plan to complete the negotiation process by 2026 and join the EU by 2028 is credible and achievable.”
This optimism is shared among NGOs. Nevenka Vuksanović, Director of the Center for Human Rights and Democracy (CEDEM), states that conversations with EU officials from Brussels and within the EU Delegation in Montenegro point to the same conclusion. “I believe we have a contract ready for us to sign. All of the people in the NGO sector and in the institutions received the same feedback: You will be the next member state. It has already been decided for you—unless you mess up terribly.”
However, Vuksanović views Montenegro’s process from a different perspective: “We are advancing as much as we are, not only because of what we achieved so far, but because we are needed by the EU.”
Why Brussels Wants Montenegro to Succeed
Rather than Montenegro relying on the EU for power, money and security, could it be the EU that needs Montenegro? Vuksanović suggests two possible reasons why.
First, enlargement is the EU’s flagship promise. Yet, Croatia was the last country to join in 2012. More than a decade later, the EU needs a success story. In her opinion, advancing Montenegro showcases that the accession process is still alive and that the Union can still deliver on its commitments. This message would resonate far beyond Podgorica, reaching the eight other candidate countries and the rest of the Western Balkans who are waiting in line. It proves that membership is still within their reach.
That signal is urgently needed, said Vuksanović, adding that conversations across the NGO sector in the Western Balkans reveal a clear drop in trust toward the EU. In North Macedonia, membership increasingly feels out of reach. In Serbia, young people feel abandoned; after more than a year of protests against the Vučić government, Brussels’ recent criticism is seen as too little, too late.
The second reason Vuksanović mentions is the change of the geopolitical context. To remain a relevant global actor alongside Russia, China, India or an increasingly unpredictable United States, the EU needs new members and greater strategic depth, she argues. With aggressions and wars currently raging on the continent, and a wider conflict looming in the future, Montenegro, along with Albania, would give the Union full access to the Adriatic Sea, strengthening its geopolitical position. Besides struggling internationally, the EU also struggles internally. A lot of far-right and EU sceptic powers are gaining power and the Union simply cannot afford any radical new members.
Stability, Public Trust and Media Freedom: The Last Hurdles to 2028
While Montenegro is also comparatively politically stable and considered a safer candidate than others in the region, there are tensions involving pro-Serbian parties and anti-immigrant and nationalist thinking.
Those tensions are not to be underestimated: While Montenegro presents a united front on EU membership politically, not all day-to-day politics align smoothly with accession goals. In the village of Botun, plans for an EU-funded wastewater treatment plant, which is critical for progress on Chapter 27 covering environment and climate action, have stalled. Members of the former Democratic Front have threatened to leave the government over the project. That could trigger early elections, which in turn creates instability.
The government still needs to consolidate the Rule of Law and their fight against corruption and organized crime. The NGO CCE points to high levels of corruption in healthcare, education, security, and local governance and the perceived distrust of the society in the institutions and the system.
Meanwhile, public opinion is shifting as well. Even in Montenegro, where support for the EU remains high, surveys show a slight decrease. EU funds have not yet fully materialized, and rising wages have been offset by inflation, leaving many citizens asking a simple question: What are the concrete benefits? Polls suggest that living standards shape public attitudes more than any geopolitical argument.
Media freedom plays a central role in this case. Both the European Commission and civil society warn that Montenegro’s media environment remains polarized and vulnerable. Investigative journalism is limited, and most citizens consume news aligned with their political beliefs. Key institutions, including the Constitutional Court, still lack full independence. These structural weaknesses remain significant obstacles on Montenegro’s path toward accession.
The challenges are serious and should not be underestimated, but Vuksanović insists the bigger picture matters. “After we become a member, our job is not done. Accession is just the beginning: We will develop further, build infrastructure and gain the mindset of European citizens. But the EU needs to adapt to the Balkan region as well.”
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