Since November 3, 2024, Moldova and its citizens have been oscillating between reassurance and disappointment. On October 20, alongside the first round of the presidential elections, a historic referendum was held to amend the Moldovan Constitution and enshrine European Union membership as a national goal, thereby shielding this political direction from pro- Russian influences. With a slim majority of 50.38%, the “yes” vote prevailed. Then, in the second round of the presidential elections on November 3, the pro-European path triumphed once again, with the re-election of Maia Sandu, a pro-European candidate, defeating her socialist, eurosceptic rival allied with Moscow. However, this victory conceals deep fractures and concerns within Moldovan society.
I will analyze the reasons why the current government is fighting so determinedly for Moldova’s accession to the European Union, while also exploring the hesitations and doubts that persist among the population, I further examine the hopes associated with this potential membership, as well as the risks of failure and the looming threat of the country’s Russification.
I. Why the European Union?
First and foremost, it is essential to ask: why does Moldova want or need to join the European Union, and what are the expected benefits?
Historically, Moldova has often been part of larger entities that extended beyond its current territorial and cultural boundaries. From the Principality of Moldova to the Russian Empire, Greater Romania, and later the Soviet Union, Moldova has frequently sought integration into broader frameworks. Even during its movement for independence, Moldova envisioned reunification with Romania. Today, in the absence of such a union, it turns to the European Union, hoping for a smoother accession. It is worth noting that EU membership would likely occur under more favorable conditions than a potential union with Romania. This explains the focus and emphasis on the European Union by the current Moldovan government, which presents itself as “unionist.”1 This stance persists despite the skepticism or outright opposition of a significant portion of the population, as well as the disinformation and obstacles orchestrated by Russia to keep Moldova within its sphere of influence. This can be attributed to how the EU operates and the values it promotes among its member states, such as respect for national languages and cultures, as well as, to some extent, the sovereignty of its members. Drawing lessons from the 27 member states, which often differ in their approach to the EU, is also a valuable asset in persuading Moldova of the benefits of joining the organization.
For Moldova, the EU represents not only an opportunity but also a solution to its current political challenges. By joining the EU, Moldova hopes to strengthen its democracy and the rule of law. Although the Constitution officially established democracy as the governing system in 1991, corruption, citizens’ mistrust of institutions, and abuses of power have hindered the development of a fully functioning democracy. Membership would entail adopting strict standards in transparency, governance, and rights protection, thereby consolidating democratic institutions. Furthermore, having faced interference and threats from Russia since its independence, Moldova views EU membership as a chance to bolster its security. Integration would enable collaboration with European security agencies, access to EU resources to counter disinformation and hybrid attacks by external actors, and provide citizens with a greater sense of safety. Moldova’s struggling education system would also benefit. Many students emigrate to study at European universities, particularly in Romania, drawn by better education quality and greater job opportunities. For those who stay, employment prospects are limited to the domestic market, and Moldovan degrees are not recognized abroad. EU integration could enhance the education system, reduce youth emigration, and help develop the elite workforce needed for the country’s growth. Finally, EU membership would modernize infrastructure, improve the labor market, and raise living standards in Moldova, encouraging the Moldovan diaspora to return and strengthen their ties to their homeland. This development could reduce divisions between the diaspora and those who remain in Moldova while fostering a sense of national pride around the country’s progress.
For all these reasons and more, Moldova has a vested interest in aligning itself with the European Union and becoming a member. In return, the EU, by welcoming Moldova into its family of 27 states, could expand its geographic borders and enhance its influence while reaffirming and legitimizing its mission to promote peace and democracy globally. Additionally, Moldova’s small size and relatively modest population make its integration more manageable. In the current context of the war in Ukraine—perceived as a clash between European values and Russia’s conservative ideals—integrating Moldova would send a strong message to Russia and the world about the EU’s commitment to defending peace, democracy, and prosperity in the face of authoritarian regimes. Moldova thus represents a unique opportunity to demonstrate the EU’s resilience and transformative power, especially as integrating countries like Ukraine or Georgia appears more challenging, if not impossible, at this time.
II. EU membership: a project shared by all?
At present, Moldova and its citizens are divided over three major concerns: emigration, European requirements, particularly regarding rights and values, and inflation, especially the high cost of gas and energy. These issues are either already associated with the European Union or amplified by fears of the consequences of potential membership, significantly diminishing the appeal of the EU and accession, while provoking strong resistance.
First, emigration has been a major issue since independence, with Moldovans leaving in large numbers in search of better living conditions. Initially, Russia was the main destination, but today, most Moldovan migrants settle in Europe, where they enjoy better living and working conditions
and tend to remain for longer periods. Those who stay in Moldova often express discontent, particularly when the diaspora influences political directions that differ from those desired within the country. The recent October 20 referendum, on enshrining EU membership as a constitutional objective, along with the re-election of pro-European President Maia Sandu on November 3, highlight this division. Without the diaspora vote, the referendum would have failed, with more “no” than “yes” votes, and Maia Sandu would have lost to the PSRM candidate, a pro-Moscow politician opposed to the EU. While the margin of victory needed to pass the referendum and re- elect Maia Sandu was minimal, it is undeniable that the diaspora, to some extent, determined Moldova’s fate and influenced its political direction, notably toward the European Union. However, one question remains: Is the diaspora’s support enough to lead Moldova down the path of European integration? Maia Sandu’s recently re-elected government faces the challenge of intensifying its communication efforts to promote EU membership and reduce internal divisions— whether they stem from political differences or the gap between Moldovans living in the country and those who have emigrated. In particular, it is crucial for the government to reassure Moldovans who have stayed in the country, explaining that EU membership does not necessarily mean an increase in emigration. On the contrary, while accession may facilitate travel, work opportunities, and resettlement in other EU member states, it would primarily improve living conditions within Moldova itself, making the country more attractive to those considering a return.
Secondly, certain requirements of the EU acquis communautaire raise concerns among Moldovans, sometimes leading them to reject the idea of EU membership despite their desire to join the Union. The rules on competition and the free movement of goods, in particular, worry Moldovan industrialists and artisans. The Moldovan market, already fragile and lacking competitiveness, is increasingly flooded with European products, often sold at prices inaccessible to the average buyer. Although the suspension of import taxes and quotas on EU-origin goods in July 2022 temporarily supported Moldovan agricultural producers, explaining the benefits of opening up to the European market remains a challenge. This challenge is even more complicated by Moldova’s trade imbalance, as the country imports twice as much as it exports in dollar value, reinforcing a sense of economic inequity. Moreover, some of the European Union’s core values are perceived as incompatible with Moldovan identity, particularly regarding minority rights, including LGBTQ+ rights, and the European conception of religion. In Moldova, the vast majority of the population— 90%—belongs to the Orthodox Church. This religious identity, combined with values inherited from the Soviet era, which was marked by a rejection of the West, fuels resistance to the acceptance of LGBTQ+ rights. According to a UN report, a large majority of Moldovans consider LGBT+ individuals to be “abnormal,” with a significant portion even perceiving them as a threat to societal order and stability2. However, for the EU to allow new members to join, it requires adherence to the fundamental rights it promotes within its community, including the recognition and protection of minorities. This rejection is further amplified by Russian propaganda, which works to create an atmosphere of fear and anxiety by spreading misinformation, particularly portraying EU membership as a threat to the integrity of national values.
Finally, Moldovans, like many Europeans today, are deeply dissatisfied and grappling with inflation as well as rising energy prices. Historically dependent on Russian gas, Moldova has been severely affected by the cessation of Russian imports—a consequence of its alignment with EU sanctions. Experts estimate that Moldova is currently paying 45% more than the regional average for gas supplies3. For the “poorest country in Europe,” as it is often labeled by its Western neighbors, and due to its long-standing reliance on a single supplier—Russia—this situation has fueled widespread discontent. For many Moldovans, the high price of gas is seen as a valid reason to consider closer relations with Russia, despite the atrocities it is committing in Ukraine. This also partly explains why Moldovans remaining in the country are less inclined to unconditionally support Ukraine or prioritize EU integration, unlike members of the diaspora. This sentiment is further exacerbated by fears that EU requirements, particularly those related to market liberalization and increased competitiveness, will only worsen price increases, pushing more people into poverty. In this context, it is critical for the current government to help the population understand that inflation would have risen regardless due to the global situation, and that refusing to import low-cost gas from Russia is a necessary stance to condemn the war and stand on the side of humanity and peace. Additionally, this position allows Moldova to receive international support and gain recognition from the global community, particularly from the European Union.
In conclusion, in the face of these three major concerns that today affect a majority of Moldovans, it is necessary to redouble efforts to convince those who nearly tipped the balance against the inclusion of the EU accession clause as a national strategy for Moldova in the referendum of October 20, 2024. Of course, one must not overlook the influence of propaganda and vote-buying, which contributed to the referendum results. However, it is undeniable that the Moldovans most vulnerable to these fraudulent strategies orchestrated by Russia and its agents are also those who feel the most concern about the issues raised earlier.
III. The hopes of integration and the risks of failure
Pro-European supporters, who make up nearly the majority of the Moldovan population, including the diaspora, see EU membership as a new chapter in Moldova’s history, where the country would not only be respected and recognized in its full territorial and cultural integrity, but also develop and progress toward a much better future. EU membership would also mean the possibility of return for a large part of the Moldovan diaspora. Improving the educational system for children, developing infrastructure and the economy with a larger labor market and better working conditions, as well as strengthening democracy and the rule of law where people can feel safe and heard, among many other reasons, will be the main motivations to return home. EU membership would also help consolidate national identity by fostering a sense of national pride around progress and the place of a modernized Moldova in the world. Moldovans would be better protected against disinformation and propaganda campaigns designed to sow division through language, ethnicity, or historical considerations. The benefits and hopes are nearly limitless, addressing all the problems Moldova currently faces. However, as previously seen, EU membership will not happen on its own. Within Moldova, opposition is still very strong, and even within the EU, nothing guarantees that enlargement will always be a priority, especially for Moldova, given the long list of countries that have been waiting for much longer than Moldova.
However, any regression would be almost disastrous for Moldova. In the best-case scenario, the country would return to a policy of “neutrality,” where, in reality, Russia would ensure its own interests and geopolitical ambitions are met, thereby depriving Moldova of the chance to forge a complete and coherent identity. This situation would prevent any future development as long as a compromise remains difficult to achieve in a deeply divided society. In the worst-case scenario, Moldova could rejoin the Commonwealth of Independent States, or even join the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). This framework would only provide “legitimacy” to a return to “ruskii mir”4 without offering any real progress. For Moldovans, even those opposed to European integration or in favor of Russia, halting EU membership negotiations and shifting closer to Russia would result in massive emigration and tougher living conditions, particularly for those with only Moldovan citizenship.
On the EU side, such a setback would mean an immediate suspension of funding and key collaborations, leading to the loss of candidate status and any hopes of membership in the near future. This would represent a major failure for the EU, not only in its enlargement strategy but also in its ability to confront Russia and, more broadly, authoritarian regimes. Such a failure would delegitimize its role as a defender of peace, prosperity, and democracy. In sum, Moldova’s failure would also be the European Union’s failure.
Moldova has everything to lose if its European integration project fails. Starting with material consequences, such as the halt in infrastructure development and the stagnation of democratic institutions, to the loss of all hope for a better future. This setback could plunge the country into a deep identity crisis, where once again, the Moldovan people would find themselves sacrificing for a broader geopolitical block, adopting ideals and values that speak to them, only to ultimately fail to achieve their goals of democracy, prosperity, and freedom.
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