Europe’s Shifting Security Calculations
For Europe, defense and security have become increasingly urgent priorities. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought large-scale war back to Europe for the first time in generations, reshaping strategic calculations for both nations and civilians in the 21st century.
Meanwhile, the transatlantic relationship between Europe and the United States has strained since Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January this year. U.S. leaders have departed from eight decades of strategic continuity, with moments such as Vice President J.D. Vance’s sharp criticism of Europe at the Munich Security Conference, leaked Signal messages from Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and President Trump’s trade war all forcing Europe, and the EU in particular, to reassess its security posture. While Washington and Brussels have been competitors in certain areas, they have not approached the relationship as outright rivals since the end of World War II.
Even as the United States retreats from some international agreements, defense-specific commitments remain strong—and in some cases have deepened. NATO has expanded in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, with Finland and Sweden breaking decades of neutrality to join in 2023 and 2024. At the 2025 Hague NATO Summit, the bloc committed to allocating 5% of each member state’s GDP to defense spending. In March 2025, the European Union unveiled its White Paper for European Defense – Readiness 2030, aiming to close critical capability gaps and strengthen the continent’s defense industrial base.
Space on the Strategic Agenda
Space has increasingly entered the global security agenda as its present use expands and its future potential grows exponentially. Valued at $630 billion in 2023, the space economy is projected to reach at least $1.8 trillion by 2035. Governments worldwide are expanding space capabilities, and Europe is no exception. In 2024, the EU appointed its first Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius, formally linking two inseparable domains. In 2025 June, the EU released the EU Space Act, built on the pillars of safety, resilience, and sustainability. NATO followed with its Overarching Space Policy, designed to expand space support in operations, missions, and allied activities.
Global governance of space remains contested. The Artemis Accords, non-binding principles to promote safe, transparent, and sustainable exploration, have grown steadily since their introduction in 2020, with Senegal becoming the 56th signatory in July 2025. Twenty-seven European nations, both inside and outside the EU, have signed on, seeking deeper collaboration in space governance. In contrast, China leads the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) initiative, now backed by 17 nations.
Europe’s space legacy is notable. France has long been at the forefront of civil, commercial, and defense space innovation, establishing its Space Command in 2009, a decade before the U.S. created its Space Force. The European Space Agency (ESA), headquartered in Paris, remains central to shaping a unified space policy. In early 2025, ESA launched its Strategy 2040 roadmap, prioritizing five goals: protecting the planet and climate, advancing exploration, strengthening European autonomy, boosting competitiveness, and inspiring future generations.
But the “final frontier” is becoming crowded. Ninety nations now have the industrial base and strategic interest to pursue space activities, while private companies have emerged as major actors. SpaceX, a critical NASA supplier, operates Starlink, which provides communications to over 130 nations via more than 7,600 satellites. Its role in Ukraine has sparked debate over the military use of private satellites, while Italy’s proposed $1.8 billion, five-year deal with Starlink, potentially sidelining the EU’s in-development IRIS² satellite constellation, has drawn political backlash and been put on hold.
For many, space still feels remote. In reality, it underpins nearly every facet of modern life—from navigation and telecommunications to banking and social media. Any large-scale terrestrial conflict would almost certainly disrupt space-based assets, threatening global communications, commerce, and data security. The opportunities in space are vast, but so too are the challenges of preserving it as a stable, cooperative, and non-violent domain.
Securing Europe’s Role in Space Governance
The EU has already taken meaningful steps to prioritize this critical domain. The appointment of Kubilius, the adoption of the EU Space Act, and the release of the Strategy 2040 roadmap form the foundation for long-term mission success. Yet these initiatives must not be allowed to lose momentum. Sustained investment, research, and policy development are essential to securing a safe and stable space environment. The private sector should be treated as a vital partner in this effort, with the European Space Agency’s launch of the ESA Investment Network in January 2025 underscoring its commitment to fostering such collaboration. Interagency and cross-border coordination will be equally critical as geopolitical norms shift, with the rapid ratification of the Artemis Accords reflecting the continent’s shared commitment to cooperative space governance.
The governance and jurisdiction of space are still in their infancy, leaving Europe at a critical inflection point: to lead in shaping the rules of engagement in this new domain, or risk being left in the space dust.
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