Austrian voters will go to the polls on 29 September to directly elect 183 members of the National Council for a five-year term. This is important because the National Council, together with the Federal Council, functions as the legislative power of the country, passes bills, approves international treaties, and ensures that the next government receives a vote of confidence by an absolute majority.
Elections in Austria- here is what to look out for
The election comes just 5 months after the European Parliament vote, which saw a close contest between the Freedom Party (FPÖ), the Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), and the Social Democrats. The FPÖwon the election, and proved to be a solid far-right partner for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party, contributing to the formation of the Patriots for Europe group with 6 MEPs.
Results from the European Parliament election 2024 in Austria. source: Illustration by Pogány Marcell
The FPÖ currently polling at around 28% (16.2% in 2019), is projected to win the election. This right-wing turn could have detrimental consequences for the country. Their central message is fighting against immigration and fuelling hate against refugees and people of color, which seems to have mobilization potential. Their Euroskeptic, pro-Russian stance would surely cause some headaches and disruptions to the EU’s already vulnerable stance on Ukraine and democracy in light of the FPÖ’s Hungarian partner, Fidesz’s track record of vetoing statements and resolutions.
The charts illustrate the predicted results of the Austrian parliamentary election. The results were obtained by averaging several voting projections. source: Illustration by Pogány Marcell
Coalition (hunger) games
However, the FPÖ may fall short of forming a government, if the ruling ÖVP (center-right aligned) joins the other parties’ cordon sanitaire against them. Nevertheless, the Austrian youth are skeptical. Multiple voices from the liberal, pro-European NEOS party argue that an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition is already in the making, which would seriously undermine EU cooperation, and induce further democratic backsliding.
It looks like the ÖVP, the party of chancellor Nehammer will be hard to circumvent by any government forming coalition. Aspiring social democrats, campaigning with tax reform and focusing on issues around the cost of living, together with NEOS and the Austrian Green Party do not look strong enough to secure a majority. It is really down to who the (Ne)hammer will hit and bring along for the new government.
The Green Party’s climate topics, alongside NEOS’s pro-federalisation approach, have yet to yield results - but the younger electorate, mobilized against a right-shifting government, could give them a solid push.
Campaign specifics - high tides, low immigration?
Thumbs up to... no disinformation? To our surprise, and according to our research, the Austrian public had been generally spared from large-scale professionally organized disinformation campaigns. Well, it may be our Hungarian experience that expected more fake billboard campaigns and smear attacks. The authors, however, are happy to see that not all is lost for the European democratic sphere.
The only instance where we stopped for a second was an NGO campaign, which, surprisingly, is linked to the greens. In thumbs-up infographics, they show the stance of parties on certain policy areas. But instead of projecting the Greens as the sole choice, they tend to favor all parties except the FPÖ and ÖVP, bending the reality to drive voters away from these parties.
Wahlcheck #Landwirtschaft & Klimakrise: 10 Schritte für eine Landwirtschaft mit Zukunft - Welche Partei geht wie weit? Wir haben gemeinsam mit Bioverband Erde & Saat, @ObvVia und @BirdLifeAustria nachgefragt! Alle Antworten gibts hier: https://t.co/Bx0hoRPfI5 pic.twitter.com/KPkskDAN4i
— GLOBAL 2000 (@global2000) September 18, 2024
A canceled concert - stealing the show?
Migration has undoubtedly been one of the campaign’s key topics. Recent violent events and increased fear in society following the foiled terror plot during a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna dominated the political discourse. Parties advocating for stronger border protection measures can make easy gains, while a more progressive approach can easily backfire on the opposition.
We observed that Austrians are generally in favor of open borders - except when Germany wants to return illegal immigrants to Austria, or when they come through Czechia, Slovenia, or Hungary…. so, do they really favor it, or is it more of a pretentious approach that evaporates in the voting booth?
Tides turning, politicians learning?
The recent floods that have hit Central Europe have brought serious damage to Austria as well. Beyond the traditional emergency measures, and the blame-game, it has shifted the political landscape and discourse, weakening the far-right’s campaign messages’ success. The focus has seemingly shifted to disaster management, where the current governing party, theÖVP, can portray themselves as strong leaders defending the country and its citizens.
The floods can also bring an unexpected victory to the Greens who could benefit from the climate topics resurfacing and regaining importance, as people become more aware of the consequences of neglecting our climate. We are skeptical, though, as the trends in recent years do not seem to be favoring green parties, as we observe other topics, such as security issues,housing crises, and the cost of living becoming more influential for voters.
Looking ahead
Austria’s election may not be the biggest one this turbulent year. However, a potential right-wing change in government could be significant, especially regarding European Unity and democratic standards.
Climate emergencies, migration, the cost of living, and foreign policy developments remain influential for any voter, and the electorate’s shift towards extremities put traditional parties at difficult crossroads.
Since the European elections, Austria has stayed on the campaign trail. State and municipal elections are coming around the corner in November and March respectively, leaving the door open for potential party rebranding following losses, changing coalitions and partners, and new campaign messages.
As Europe turns its eyes towards Vienna this Sunday, politicians around the European Union watch closely as their friends and foes to determine how the coalition will unfold.
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